Vote Turnout

Polling is a tricky thing and often wrong. The polls did not pick up the huge Republican wins prior to the 2010 election. When the races are close as the current polls tell us for this election, it's foolish to count on the polls to per-determine the winners.

Early voting is no better a judge of winners, but it can be a good judge of the turnout of voters for an election. Early voting for this election is way up, which predicts a large voter turnout for election day, especially for a midterm election.

Voter turnout in Americas early years (1789-1850) was rather low in numbers. So few people could legally vote. Voter turnout between 1850 and 1900 was fairly high between 70 and 90 percent. Voter turnout started dropping after WW I and continued to drop till the 1960's when it leveled off and is pretty much the same today, around 56-60 percent. Voter turnout is lower for midterm (non-presidential election years) elections. America has consistently had one of the lowest voter turnouts in the world.

It used to be believed that the higher the voter turnout, the better for Democrats, as it has been believed that America is a more liberal than conservative country. But over the last 50 years since (voter turnout has remained the same percentage) the winners have more often been Republicans. If the same number of people are voting consistently over decades, but the winning party changes, that can be a sign of the people's politics changing, or the politics of the parties changing.

It's said that today's Republican party would not vote for Ronald Reagan as their nominee for president. It's said that today's Democratic party would not vote for John Kennedy as nominee for president of their party. Parties do change. The Democrats of 100 years ago were the party of racial bigotry. These days the racial bigots are found in the Republican party. There has been great change in our political parties, for a great many reasons.

Today Republicans hold majority in every category (both State and federal levels) and have for quite a while. That certainly shows a more conservative electorate. Both parties are more conservative today than they were 50 years ago. Americans are a more conservative society than 50 years ago proven by the more conservative changes in both parties.

The more eligible voters that turnout for an election, the better the consensus of the American people.

That usually would reflect in less political bickering among the people, but not always. Voter turnout before the Civil War was high, between 75 and 85%.

Political bickering and fights among the people have been high in the last 50 years, which reflects our low voter turnout over the last 50 years. Voter turnout has been slightly higher (about 2 or 3%) in the last 20 years. The highest voter turnout recently was in 2008 when voter turnout was 63%. That was the year America voted for its first black man for president and probably why voter turnout was higher.

If we had voter turnout in the 80, or 90 percent range, political bickering would probably be less, because we would have a more certain consensus of what Americans want.

Today political bickering is very high among the people. Low voter turnout is only part of that problem. Political issues are only part of that problem. The biggest reason is the personality of the current president. Trump uses fear against the American people to motivate them to vote, or not vote, or to suppress their vote. He is a president who does not uphold, or even act by constitutional law, or morals.

The character and personality of our leaders and candidates for office has always been a big reason Americans vote one way, or another and the cause of low, or high voter turnout numbers. Americans are still motivated by the individual as much, or more than issues.

So it's a good sign that voter turnout will be high for this midterm election. Will that mean a Democratic win? We will see. Even if it does, the Republican majority throughout the country will need more than one election to loose their majority position.

VOTE !!

I have a voting locator on my sidebar. Just input your zip code and find your voting location anywhere in the country. Check you local voting laws. Don't be fooled by false information about the voting laws in your locality.